UFC 137 viewpoint

Well I got two out of my four picks right, which is why I rarely bet on MMA! UFC 137 was a decent card saved by an awesome main event. I have to say Nick Diaz was fantastic, better than I thought he would be. BJ had a good first round (which he won in my opinion), but Nick's cardio, pressure and endless barrages of quickfire combinations proved too much for the plucky Hawaiian. I respect BJ's heart and chin but if that fight had been five rounds we would've seen a stoppage. Really interesting that Nick now leapfrogs Carlos Condit for the next shot at GSP. Apparently Condit "agreed" to step aside. That's like getting an offer from the mafia that you can't refuse. He must be gutted (although I'd be surprised if the UFC didn't give him some form of financial sweetener). Nick was pretty clever calling out GSP after the fight and in fairness it is the fight that we all want to see. GSP also needed to look like he wasn't avoiding Diaz, it's like standing up to the school yard bully...you can't put it off. I think the one remaining question mark hanging over Diaz is his ability to handle an elite MMA wrestler. That question will be answered one way or another in the GSP fight. The rest of the card was just ok for me. Cerrone looked great. Kongo proved to be the really solid gatekeeper that he is and Mitrione will have to go away and learn from that performance. I hope that Mirko is genuinely serious about retiring this time.....I hope that BJ will reconsider, he still has something to offer.

"Too Much UFC"......not for me.

Listening to my favourite podcast recently "The MMA Hour" with the excellent Ariel Helwani, the subject of "too much UFC" is often raised. Ariel and many other guests have been in agreement that there are simply too many UFC events these days. I've been thinking about this subject for a while now and it's something that I just can't agree with. Dana White has often stated that their long term aim is to make MMA the biggest sport in the world. It's a lofty goal but one which I would love to see realized. In all honesty I can't ever see MMA overtaking football (soccer for my American readers) in world wide appeal, but if it could even get close I'd be more than happy. The UFC has seriously ramped up the number of events over the last 12 months and the frequency of cards is only set to keep increasing. Being honest I can only see benefits to this "saturation approach". Look at other sports for a start, the most popular sports in the world saturate TV channels with live events and replays most nights of the week. Most of these sports don't operate a PPV model but the rational is still the same. More UFC events is surely better for the fighters, it means that they have to carry more fighters on the roster (giving more fighters access to the UFC health care), this raises standards across the sport allowing more fighters to train professionally with the increased financial security of being associated with the UFC. It also allows fighters to fight more often, increasing their visibility and marketability. The recent Fox deal will also have a major impact on the sport, giving fighters access to a wider market in which they can promote their brand. There is an argument that PPV numbers will suffer with an increase in the number of events. This is inevitable initially as viewers pick and choose cards in a time of economic uncertainty, but whilst individual cards may have slightly lower figures, the overall number of PPV buys should be higher with the vastly increased number of events. The fights on Fox will also introduce MMA to a whole new audience which should mean increased PPV buys with time. The increased number of shows combined with The UFC soon to be shown on network television also goes a long way to help the legitimization of the sport. MMA is still tarred with the brush of being a "no holds barred" "barbaric sport" in many quarters. The "saturation approach" should slowly erode this misconception as the sport becomes more and more accepted in the mainstream. I can't wait for the day that MMA is reported as a mainstream sport on the back pages of newspapers here in the UK. The more events we see, the higher profile fighters become in the USA and the rest of the world, the more likely it is to happen. The argument I've heard against this is that many fans can't afford to buy every PPV. We are lucky in the UK in that we pay an annual subscription fee and we then get to watch pretty much every event the UFC puts on. It's undoubtedly true that with an increased number of events more fans will have to pick and choose which events they watch, but that's always been the case. If the UFC only put on 6 shows a year there would still be fans that couldn't afford to watch all of them, so where do you draw the line? The important question is can the UFC genuinely have ambitions of being the biggest sport in the world whilst only having 12 or so shows a year? I'll let you make up your own mind...

Is Winning Enough?

A Recent debate at the Arm Bar Forum http://thearmbar.forumotion.com/f1-mma-forum about the next welter weight challengers got me thinking. I mean if Diaz wins then he gets the next shot, that's pretty much universally accepted, then we have the likes of Ellenberger, maybe Rory Macdonald, even Rumble Johnson with a couple more wins. There is however an elephant in the room, and his name is Jon Fitch. Most of the guys in the forum felt that Fitch would probably beat all of the contenders I've listed above. Incredibly he has lost just one fight in his 15 UFC appearances. To be fair it was a heavy loss to GSP but then again who has pushed the champ close recently? Some websites list Fitch in their pound for pound top 10, and with a record like that, it's difficult to argue. Yet despite this Jon Fitch is not being mentioned as a title contender, don't get me wrong I love the UFC but it seems in Fitch's case the fact that he is a top fighter is overlooked because he isn't "exciting". Sure Fitch tends to grind his way to decision wins, and hand on heart I would rather watch Anderson Silva fight all day long. Despite this I respect the fact that he is a tough SOB, and I think that it's important to remember that MMA is a sport and in sport winning is what matters most. I'm sure the UFC feel that Fitch v GSP 2 won't sell as many PPV's as a fresh match with one of the contenders above but I don't care about that, I want to see the best fight the best. If those guys would all get wrestled to a decision loss by Fitch, then that's their problem, they need to improve as fighters.  I don't think the UFC should protect them from Fitch because they are scared he will derail the fresh meat. Since Fitch lost to GSP he went on a 5 fight win streak before a draw with BJ Penn. Prior to his fight with Fitch, BJ was coming off back to back losses to Frankie Edgar and a win over the once great but terminally declining Matt Hughes. How are they both rewarded? Penn is in this weeks main event against Nick Diaz, Fitch gets a banana skin of a fight against Johny Hendricks (who is outside of the top 10, but very dangerous). Does that seem fair to you? Maybe we should look at it like a business, we all want the sport to grow and the best way to do that is put on exciting fights and increase the PPV numbers. Combined with that you have to say that in the UFC the cream really does tend to rise to the top. All of the champions are well deserving of the title. I just think that on this occasion if a guy has a record like Fitch's then regardless of his style you have to let him fight the top boys and consider him as a title contender.

Who's the First to Fall?

The UFC has grown and evolved over a number of years into the behemoth of an organisation that we all know and love today. Speaking to a friend recently we both agreed that never in the history of the organisation have we seen such dominant (or potentially dominant champions across all the weight classes). It's a great position to be in, dominant champions become more marketable over time (Anderson Silva is sponsored by Nike and Burger King!), they also add value to the belts that they carry. A win over a dominant champion is something to behold, a seminal moment in the sport, the kind of thing that fans love to witness. It's really difficult to say which champion is most likely to lose their belt first. Based on my scores below it would seem to be either Edgar or Velasquez. What do you guys think? I've had loads of website hits but no comments as of yet, don't be shy. Let me know, who's the first to fall?

Let's look at the current champions and assess their longevity;

1. Dominick Cruz

Dominick has already pretty much cleaned out the division, he has only one loss (which he has avenged) in 20 fights, the best matches for him are re matches. He has defended his belt four times (merging WEC and UFC records) and has the potentially to remain champ for the foreseeable future. Despite being criticised for his lack of finishing power the UFC has been steadily building his profile and he is a high energy fighter with few holes in his game.

Domination score 7 (out of 10)

2. Jose Aldo

Another really dominant champion. Jose has defended his title on five occasions (if you merge his WEC and UFC) records, rarely looking like losing (except an unexpected final round "gas" against Mark Hominick). This guy is a machine feared for his devastating leg kicks and explosive all round game. His biggest challenge will most likely come if Frankie Edgar decides to step down and fight at 145, otherwise he looks really tough to beat.

Domination score 8 (out of 10)

3. Frankie Edgar

Frankie is an interesting one. Despite being a true champion he is also a perennial underdog, often written off, but possessing an unbelievable will to win. He's undersized for a light weight, not really needing to cut any weight, and we have seen him in serious trouble (twice) in epic fights against Gray Maynard. In every title fight he has there will be people ready to write him off but I think he is unbelievably tough to beat. Great boxing, footwork, wrestling and heart combine to make an all round excellent fighter. The light weight division is stacked and there is a queue of would be champions. It's gonna be tough but I have a feeling Frankie is gonna be around as champ for a while, and the UFC are doing a nice job of building his profile and status.

Domination score 6.5 (out of 10)

4. GSP

What can I say, the guy is a phenom, super athlete, good looking, 7 title defences in a row without ever  remotely looking like losing. GSP is the ultimate dominant champion. He is criticised heavily for his safety first approach and lack of finishes but as I've said in a previous post it really is up to the guy he's fighting to do something about it. There is much talk of a superfight with Anderson Silva but I can't see it materialising, not with the extra bulk GSP would have to acquire to be competitive. Combined with that there are some fresh challengers emerging at WW. Think Condit , Diaz, Ellenberger and you may even have his next three fights. Hand on heart I can't see any of them really pushing him close.

Domination score 9 (out of 10)

5. Anderson Silva

Unbeaten for nearly 5 years and with 9 UFC title defences, Anderson Silva is a hugely dominant champion and in my opinion the number 1 pound for pound fighter in the world. It would not be stretching it to describe him as the greatest MMA fighter of all time. He's totally cleaned out the division. the one remaining hurdle is his rematch with Chael Sonnen, the fighter who has pushed him further than anyone else in the UFC. If he beats Chael I can see him staying undefeated at middle weight for a couple more years. Age is not on his side but he's rarely involved in gruelling fights and he doesn't seem to pick up too many injuries.

I'd love to see him move up and fight John Jones while he's still at his peak. That fight makes so much more sense to me than a match against an undersized GSP.

Domination score 9.5 (out of 10)

6. John Jones

A true phenom, and undoubtedly the future of the sport. 14 wins with one disqualification loss in a bout he was dominating. His record is starting to have a Fedor-esque look about it. He won the title in dominating fashion against an undercooked but still dangerous Shogun, and then dismantled Rampage on his way to a submission victory in his first and only defence. The light heavyweight division is stacked and his next two fights against Machida and presumably Rashad Evans could be tricky, but to be fair he has looked on a different level. The only thing I see stopping John Jones is him literally outgrowing the division. He has a big frame and there may well come a time when he simply has to move up.

Domination score 6.5 (out of 10) for now after only one defence, with the potential to be a 10.

7. Cain Velasquez

Cain is another interesting one. He's been out for a long time with injury in a weight class where champions tend to rise and fall at a faster pace. He seems to be the real deal. His dismantling of Brock Lesnar in particular was exceptional. Great wrestling, good stand up, Mexican fighting spirit, what more do you want? He did show slight weaknesses in the fight with Kongo who buckled the future champ twice, but it's the only time we've seen him really troubled. His next fight with Dos Santos is a real toughie, it's a 50/50 call in my mind especially after such a long lay off . If he gets through that I can see him defending the belt for a while.

Domination score 5.5 (out of 10) with the potential to be a 7 or 8

UFC 137 The Pick of the Bunch

Well there's still a week and a half to go before UFC 137 but I thought I'd take the opportunity slightly early to have a look at some of the more interesting match ups and how I think they'll go.

Penn v Diaz

Despite GSP's withdrawal with a knee injury the card is still left with a fight well worthy of a main event. This fight is super tough to call in my opinion. Most armchair fans seem to think that Diaz will come out on top but I'm not so sure. The fact that this is only going to be a three rounder definitely goes in Penn's favour. According to reports both camps were offered the opportunity for this bout to be five rounds (after GSP withdrew) but only Diaz was positive about it. That makes sense, he's a triathlon competing cardio machine and BJ isn't famed for his intense fight preparation. I think that this will predominantly be a stand up war which many people again feel will favour Diaz with his rangy "death by a thousand cuts" boxing style. BJ is no slouch on his feet though, Freddie Roach once described him as "the best boxer in MMA". I think if BJ mixes it up with leg kicks and the odd take down, he could have considerable success. Nick's jujitsu is great but I can't see him submitting BJ if he gets taken down). Nick also hasn't competed in the UFC for a while and fighters always seem to struggle with the increased quality of competition when they return to the UFC (or come across from another promotion).

I'm going for a BJ Penn win via close decision.

Kongo v Mitrione

Another exciting fight for sure. I see Kongo as a skilled gatekeeper, I don't think he'll ever put together a run for the title but he's no pushover, basically if you can beat him then you are close to being a top 10 fighter. Mitrione on the other hand is an up and comer. He is perhaps the most improved fighter in the UFC over the last two years. This is the acid test for Mitrione.....is he the real deal? We are about to find out. It will be interesting to see what tactics the guys employ, Kongo is a solid stand up fighter who has managed to mix in some take downs and vicious ground and pound in recent years. Despite Kongo's strength on his feet I think that Mitrione will be happy to stand with him, his confidence on his feet has grown enormously and he does possess one punch knockout power. I think Mitrione is a clever fighter and I expect him to come in with a game plan that at some point puts Kongo on his back (a position from which he really struggles).

I'm going for Mitrione via 2nd round TKO.

Cro Cop v Nelson

There was once a time that I wouldn't miss a Cro Cop fight for the world. Unfortunately these days he has lost most of his mystique, both his body and mind no longer seem willing. The terrifyingly brutal knock out artist of old seems to have disappeared forever. Despite Cro Cop's recent poor form Roy Nelson isn't such a bad match up for him but still a very tough fight. Nelson is coming off a lethargic and disappointing performance against Frank Mir and really needs a win to cement his place in the UFC. Cro Cop may surprise us all with the trademark head kick KO that we've all been waiting for since he joined the UFC but it's highly unlikely. Roy has a great chin and heavy hands, he is also capable of taking Cro Cop down and keeping him there.

I'm going for Nelson via a unanimous decision (but I wouldn't be surprised to see a KO).


Siver v Cerrone

This should be a really fun bout. Both fighters are always game and come to the octagon with a level of intensity and aggression that fans love to see. Siver has had some excellent recent wins against Matt Wiman and the impressive George Sotiropoulos, a win here would make it five on the bounce in the UFC, impressive by any one's standards. Cerrone is also on a hot streak winning his last five in a row (the most recent 3 wins have been in the UFC). This should be a brutal stand up war with no quarter asked or given . I think Cerrone's reach advantage will prove decisive. Siver has to close the gap if his is to trade with the "Cowboy" and I think it will be a bridge too far. Cerrone looks more focused than ever these days and I think he'll come out on top.

I'm going for Cerrone via unanimous decision.

GSP OUT!!

Breaking news from Dana White on Twitter is that GSP is out of his title fight with Carlos Condit. Bad news, the UFC has had some bad luck with injuries recently. Nick Diaz v BJ Penn will be a good main event no doubt, but it would've been nice to have two massive fights on the card. For the record I think that GSP would've won by safety first grind to a decision. Not that I'm criticising too much, it's up to the other fighter to deal with it, it's not like they don't know what he's gonna do.

The Ultimate Fighter - on its last legs?

The Ultimate Fighter was undoubtedly a ground breaking TV series. The finale of the first show is credited with sparking a renewed interest in the UFC and MMA in general. Forrest Griffin and Stephan Bonnar put on an unbelievable fight. The TV show has some stellar alumni that have carved impressive careers, think Forrest Griffin, Gray Maynard, Josh Koscheck, Kenny Florian, Michael Bisping and many more. I just think that recently the show has lost alot of its lustre. Reality TV shows always tend to fall off after a while, the in-house antics are now a little tiresome, you put ketchup in someones wrestling shoes...big deal. Go and watch the Junie Browning series for a lesson in how to be an asshole on the ultimate fighter. Even the "tension" between the coaches feels manufactured. I get the sense that Bisping and Miller don't mind each other at all, and the pranks they play on each other seem staged and lack any kind of malice. Nothing can match the Ortiz v Shamrock season, genuine hatred and some of the funniest scenes the series has ever seen.  In recent times the quality of the fighters has really dipped too. The first 4 or 5 series really decimated the talent pool of fighters outside of the UFC (who weren't contracted to other organisations), it used to mean something to win the ultimate fighter, but now....I'm not so sure. The good thing about this series is that it focuses on the two lightest weight classes. I think that was a great idea, these guys haven't had the chance to appear on the show before (unless they tried out as an undersized lightweight) and we have seen a better quality of fighter than in recent years. Even so is the interest really there? Viewing figures are still decent, I still watch every episode, but if I missed one it wouldn't be a big deal.

Big Fights

I will start doing some event specific previews and write ups in the near future but I wanted to focus on two upcoming fights that have really sparked my imagination;

Silva v Sonnen 2

At the time of writing I don't think that this fight has been officially signed yet but it's a dead cert. I'd be amazed if Anderson Silva fought anyone else next. The build up to this one alone will be sensational. I mean love him or loathe him Chael Sonnen knows how to hype a fight and he has a real ability to get under Silva's skin. Everything about this will be great, the weigh in, the staredown, the only question that remains is whether Chael Sonnen can put in a repeat performance (minus the triangle) of the first fight. Most educated MMA writers that I read seem to think that the rematch will be very different, many feel that Silva will have his way in the second fight, and that he was seriously hampered by a rib injury in the first. Now I'm a huge Anderson Silva fan and there is always the chance that Silva simply catches him with a crazy strike from nowhere (invariably learned from Steven Segal) but I think it's gonna be another tough night for the Brazilian. Sonnen looked truly sensational against  Brian Stann in his most recent bout. He truly is one of the most impressive wrestlers in MMA and he's at the peak of his physical powers. Providing he doesn't get clipped on the feet (I think his stand up is actually underrated) and providing he has been working hard on sub defence, he could grind out a win. Having said that I don't think Anderson could think of much worse than losing his title to his newly found nemesis. Either way it's going to be an epic contest and maybe even a PPV record setter for the UFC.

Lesnar v Overeem

In a strange kind of way I'm looking forward to this heavyweight clash more than Dos Santos v Valasquez. I think it's the phsyical presence of the men involved, two giants squaring off always makes for a great spectacle.  Lesnar always brings star power and fan interest where ever he goes, and Overeem with his Thor-like physique will provide an asthetically well matched opponent. So how does the fight go down? I think Lesnar takes this one with some vicious ground and pound to reignite his UFC career. Overeem is a well renowned striker, a K1 champion and carries with him a wealth of fighting experience. I just think that he won't be able to stop the takedown, and even if Brock can't finish him early, Overeems suspect cardio will be tested to the limit with 5 minutes of Brock Lesnar lying on him. Overeems best chance is to stuff the takedown or maybe catch Brock with a knee as he is shooting in. Brock famously struggles when a fight remains standing for any length of time. I've never seen anyone who looks so tough react so badly to getting hit in the face (apart from maybe Bob Sapp). I think Lesner will get the takedown and win via TKO round 1.

As a side note, I realize that most people will already listen to this but I can't recommend highly emough the MMA Hour Podcast. You find it on ITunes or at http://www.mmafighting.com/

My Fedor Fantasy

Now I was an unashamed Fedor fanatic, I mean I grew up on a diet of him destroying everyone in his path, and being part of some of the biggest and most exciting MMA fights I've seen. His recent rapid demise took me a little by surprise I have to say. There's no way that he should have lost to Werdum (I still think he'd win that rematch 9 times out of 10, providing he didn't go diving into Werdum's guard). I thought that it was just a blip and he'd bounce back against Bigfoot.....obviously I was totally wrong. Even before the Henderson fight I was pretty confident, I mean he was fighting a sometime middleweight. Hendo's right hand finally shattered his myth of invincibility in my stubborn mind, and I saw Fedor for what he had become, an out of shape ageing, small heavyweight who employs basically no tactics for any of his fights. I always thought he was joking when he said he didn't watch tapes on any of his opponents but I actually think it's true (apart from maybe the Cro-Cop fight).

Fedor is 34 years old, younger than Anderson Silva and yet he is stuck in the dark ages. Modern MMA fighters have top conditioning and nutritionists. They train in every facet of the game, fight at the lowest possible weight class and employ considered tactics. Fedor is still doing pull ups in a disused children's playground somewhere in Siberia. The fact that he is able to compete at all is testament to his warrior spirit and quick reflexes.
Here's where my little fantasy kicks in (and I appreciate that this will NEVER happen), but just imagine if Fedor decided to move to the U.S, joined a top team and knuckled down to some serious all round MMA training with other top level fighters. Imagine if he employed top nutritionists and conditioning coaches and slimmed down to light heavyweight. Imagine if he got his game face on again, determined to be recognised as a top fighter. Pure fantasy I know, but I think he'd be a top 3 light heavyweight if all of the above happened.
Instead we are all brought crashing down to reality with his next match-up, a pointless (and far from straight forward) fight with Jeff Monson in Russia.

First Post

As this is the first post it's only right to give you a little bit of background info on myself and why I love MMA. I was always a huge boxing fan, but fate drew me towards MMA when I moved to Japan in 1999. I gradually got sucked into K1 (I remember having a great time watching Mark Hunt win the Grand Prix with my kiwi housemate) and eventually Pride. Now I know that it's not so cool to bang on about Pride these days, and In later posts I'm gonna try and focus more on recent events but those Pride years were special, even more so as I was actually living in Japan. I've been hooked ever since. When I moved back to the UK, MMA and more specifically the UFC continued to grow and grow to the point where we are today. I would love MMA to keep growing and eventually overtake boxing in popularity, traditionalists won't like this but it has a chance.

Oh and my favourite fighters at the moment...Shogun, Dan Henderson, Anderson Silva, and Frankie Edgar (what a knockout against Maynard). I also have to admit that for all his detractors there's something about a Brock Lesnar fight which really raises the pulse.

I'm gonna try and post regularly, If anyone actually bothers to read what I write then thank you in advance, all comments welcome within reason.

Take it easy

Matt