Well there's still a week and a half to go before UFC 137 but I thought I'd take the opportunity slightly early to have a look at some of the more interesting match ups and how I think they'll go.
Penn v Diaz
Despite GSP's withdrawal with a knee injury the card is still left with a fight well worthy of a main event. This fight is super tough to call in my opinion. Most armchair fans seem to think that Diaz will come out on top but I'm not so sure. The fact that this is only going to be a three rounder definitely goes in Penn's favour. According to reports both camps were offered the opportunity for this bout to be five rounds (after GSP withdrew) but only Diaz was positive about it. That makes sense, he's a triathlon competing cardio machine and BJ isn't famed for his intense fight preparation. I think that this will predominantly be a stand up war which many people again feel will favour Diaz with his rangy "death by a thousand cuts" boxing style. BJ is no slouch on his feet though, Freddie Roach once described him as "the best boxer in MMA". I think if BJ mixes it up with leg kicks and the odd take down, he could have considerable success. Nick's jujitsu is great but I can't see him submitting BJ if he gets taken down). Nick also hasn't competed in the UFC for a while and fighters always seem to struggle with the increased quality of competition when they return to the UFC (or come across from another promotion).
I'm going for a BJ Penn win via close decision.
Kongo v Mitrione
Another exciting fight for sure. I see Kongo as a skilled gatekeeper, I don't think he'll ever put together a run for the title but he's no pushover, basically if you can beat him then you are close to being a top 10 fighter. Mitrione on the other hand is an up and comer. He is perhaps the most improved fighter in the UFC over the last two years. This is the acid test for Mitrione.....is he the real deal? We are about to find out. It will be interesting to see what tactics the guys employ, Kongo is a solid stand up fighter who has managed to mix in some take downs and vicious ground and pound in recent years. Despite Kongo's strength on his feet I think that Mitrione will be happy to stand with him, his confidence on his feet has grown enormously and he does possess one punch knockout power. I think Mitrione is a clever fighter and I expect him to come in with a game plan that at some point puts Kongo on his back (a position from which he really struggles).
I'm going for Mitrione via 2nd round TKO.
Cro Cop v Nelson
There was once a time that I wouldn't miss a Cro Cop fight for the world. Unfortunately these days he has lost most of his mystique, both his body and mind no longer seem willing. The terrifyingly brutal knock out artist of old seems to have disappeared forever. Despite Cro Cop's recent poor form Roy Nelson isn't such a bad match up for him but still a very tough fight. Nelson is coming off a lethargic and disappointing performance against Frank Mir and really needs a win to cement his place in the UFC. Cro Cop may surprise us all with the trademark head kick KO that we've all been waiting for since he joined the UFC but it's highly unlikely. Roy has a great chin and heavy hands, he is also capable of taking Cro Cop down and keeping him there.
I'm going for Nelson via a unanimous decision (but I wouldn't be surprised to see a KO).
Siver v Cerrone
This should be a really fun bout. Both fighters are always game and come to the octagon with a level of intensity and aggression that fans love to see. Siver has had some excellent recent wins against Matt Wiman and the impressive George Sotiropoulos, a win here would make it five on the bounce in the UFC, impressive by any one's standards. Cerrone is also on a hot streak winning his last five in a row (the most recent 3 wins have been in the UFC). This should be a brutal stand up war with no quarter asked or given . I think Cerrone's reach advantage will prove decisive. Siver has to close the gap if his is to trade with the "Cowboy" and I think it will be a bridge too far. Cerrone looks more focused than ever these days and I think he'll come out on top.
I'm going for Cerrone via unanimous decision.
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